By Dudley Pierce Baker
I’m happy to share with you this link for some great interviews being done daily by Daniela at the PDAC.
Silver on the verge of a break out Stefan Wieler April 18, 2018 Silver prices are trading almost 25% below the values predicted by our price model. This is the largest downside deviation we have seen in over 25 years. We believe this is the result of massive short selling in the futures market. In order to maintain this downward pressure on silver, speculators would have to continue to sell over 500 million ounces of paper silver per year. A reversal of this positioning could lead a >30% rally in silver prices in our view. View the Entire Research Piece as a PDF here. About a year ago we introduced our Silver Price Framework (see Silver price framework: Both money and a commodity, March 9, 2017). In that report, we highlighted that silver prices are driven by monetary demand as well as supply and demand for industrial purposes, the latter of which … Continue reading
April 17, 2018 IT’S TRUE Dudley Pierce Baker, here, founder and editor of Junior Mining News and Common Stock Warrants for well over 10 years. I just reviewed my portfolio and I currently do not hold any positions, be they, shares or stock warrants, which are selling for over 50 cents. And since most of my positions are in Canadian shares and Canadian dollars, that is only about 40 cents in U.S. dollars. You can call me crazy but, crazy like a fox, as I am out to hit many home runs in the resource sector as gold and silver breakout, which is coming soon. My portfolio has a balance of oil and gas shares, gold and silver companies, several of which are small producers. I also own several of the uranium companies. While I may be known to investors as ‘the warrant guy’, only 25% of my portfolio is … Continue reading
Silver didn’t get the push it needed to outpace the rise in gold last year, as some analysts had expected, but good things come to those who wait.
“Many of silver’s key drivers that painted a bullish picture last year are still in play for 2018, particularly rising inflationary pressures and a weaker U.S. dollar,” says Maxwell Gold, director of investment strategy at ETF Securities.
Even so, silver futures have lost roughly 5% so far this year as of Friday, trailing gold’s 0.3% decline. In 2017, gold gained nearly 14%—roughly double the rise for silver. Silver closed on Friday at $16.54 an ounce.
Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, says he expected silver to top gold last year and this year, but that hasn’t happened because the rally in gold hasn’t had “the kind of consistency…necessary to lead investors to look to silver for additional leverage.”
That will come, he says, given his expectation for further declines in the U.S. dollar on the back of “recent signs of rising inflation and the fact that we’re in the back half of the [Federal Reserve’s] tightening cycle.” Other central banks look poised to begin tightening monetary policy, he says. A weaker dollar will translate into “upward pressure on gold and, eventually, as this trend becomes apparent, greater gains for silver,” says Lundin.
Demand will also play a big part in silver’s climb.
“Silver demand from industrial applications is expected to grow mainly from [electric vehicle] and photovoltaic applications, as silver has excellent electrical conductivity properties,” says Will Rhind, chief executive officer of exchange-traded fund company GraniteShares. Photovoltaic panels collect solar energy. “With continued global economic growth, continued EV demand and a weakening dollar, silver has the potential to perform well in 2018 and potentially outperform gold,” he says.
A report from the Silver Institute released in January shows that demand for the white metal from industrial applications is the largest component for silver offtake, representing 60% last year, and it’s expected to continue to grow this year. Worldwide silver demand for photovoltaic applications, particularly in solar panels, reached an estimated 92 million ounces in 2017.
“We expect the growth to continue this year and set another record for silver demand, driven by large-scale solar capacity additions and continued strong demand uptake from individual households, particularly in China,” the report says.
Analysts also point out that the gold-to-silver price ratio, which measures the amount of silver ounces that can be exchanged for one ounce of gold, is historically high, suggesting a bargain in silver.
SILVER “REMAINS RELATIVELY CHEAP compared with gold,” with the gold-to-silver ratio at about 80, versus a historical average of 60, says ETF Securities’ Gold. “Silver may play catch-up, spurred by bargain buying among retail and ETF investors.” The silver bullion-backed iShares Silver Trust ETF (ticker: SLV) has lost nearly 3% year to date.
Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, says that silver’s “failure to rise with gold so far in 2018 means that silver is touching extreme levels, in terms of the yellow precious metal.” The gold-to-silver ratio makes “gold very nearly as expensive as it has been any time in the past 25 years,” he says.
He also points out that over the past 50 years, silver and gold prices have gone in the same direction on 71% of all trading days and the two metals have moved in the same direction in 74% of the months since 1968. Given that, “if you’re bullish on gold, history says you should expect silver to rise, too,” says Ash.
And even after last year’s disappointing performance for silver, Lundin believes that prices will climb above $18 an ounce this year and “perhaps significantly higher.”
That said, he also warns of a possible dip to the mid-$15 range, particularly if the 10-year Treasury yield hits 3%. “Breaking that benchmark would likely lead to short-term havoc in risk assets, leading investors to sell the metals to meet margin calls,” Lundin says.
MYRA P. SAEFONG covers commodities for MarketWatch.
Let the games begin and the b.s. fly….
In past years I have heard Rick Rule several times cautioning investors at resource conferences to stay away from most of those companies attending and presenting. Most of the companies will never produce anything and will only sell shares, rollback, sell more shares, rollback, etc., while of course management will continue to draw salaries and investors suffer the pain of a lousy ‘investment’. There is a lot of s… out there.
Of course, I am referring to the smaller players/exploration companies not to the big boys, i.e., Goldcorp, Kinross, Agnico Eagle, etc.
There is an incredible line up of around 500 companies attending/presenting at PDAC this year which starts on Sunday, March 4 and runs through Wednesday to 12:00 on March 7.
Many of these companies, in my opinion, are there out of pure desperation, yes desperation. They are all in competition to get your investment dollars.
Truth is that it costs each company attending a minimum of $10,000 to $15,000 and some of them probably don’t even have that much cash in the bank. But they believe (out of desperation) that they need to be at PDAC to try and get your attention as to their individual story. Most of the companies management are nice guys/gals that you might like to have a drink with, but do they really know the details or even believe in the story themselves?
So, just be aware of what you as an investor are up against and ask the right questions of management of those companies which you ‘think’ you might be interested.
Perhaps the single most important question for the CEO or other officers of those companies is simple:
How many shares do you own?
You want to know if management has skin in the game. I have been lied to before by management but thankfully have a subscription to INKResearch.com where I can verify in a few seconds the insider holdings of all companies. In my services I provide a link to recent insider activity on all shares which I personally own and also on all of the companies with stock warrants trading in the United States and Canada, all of which are in our databases.
Click on this link to take you to the list of companies presenting this week at PDAC.
Here are some of the companies at PDAC which I follow or own, some of which have stock warrants trading. If you visit them, tell them Dudley said hello.
Alamos Gold Northern Dynasty Minerals (warrants)
Atlantic Gold (warrants) Osisko Gold Royalties (warrants)
Avino Silver (warrants) Palamina Corporation
Eagle Plains Resources Quaterra Resources
Energy Fuels (uranium) Riverside Resources
Fancamp Exploration Sandstorm Gold (warrants)
First Mining Gold (Finance) UEX Corporation (uranium)
Montero Mining Exploration
Enjoy your time at the conference and visit as many companies as possible, but remember what I said above.
If you would like to know more about stock warrants, get my Free book by clicking on the link below:
POSTED ON FEBRUARY 26, 2018 BY PAUL There are a group of bankers based in three cities, not Wall St., but Toronto, Vancouver, and Denver that you probably never heard of. Surprisingly, they are gold stocks. They are royalty & streaming companies, otherwise known as the Three Kings (Franco-Nevada, Royal Gold, and Wheaton Precious Metals) are the non-media grabbing bankers in the mining sector. They collect their revenue from some of the biggest mining companies in the world: Glencore, Vale, Teck Resources, Barrick Gold, Newmont Mining, AngloGold Ashanti Limited. Yet, if you add up the staff of these 3 companies, it would be less than 100 people. At the same time, their combined revenue of almost $2 billion in 2016. You could call them the bankers of mining. Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold were both founded in the 1980’s. Wheaton Precious Metals (previously named Silver Wheaton) is the new entrant over the past ten years to … Continue reading
Posted on February 16, 2018 by Egon von Greyerz US economics is extremely predictable. It doesn’t matter who is President and what party he comes from. Because every president will spend more money than the US can afford. On average, US Federal debt has doubled every 8 years since Reagan came to power in 1981. And Trump has just fulfilled the prediction. The budget deal that has been agreed is guaranteed to produce substantial deficits in coming years. The current year’s deficit might be just under $1 trillion but thereafter it is virtually guaranteed that the US will not have a budget deficit under $1 trillion for many, many years. US FEDERAL DEBT $40 TRILLION BY 2025 During Bush Jr, debt went form $10T to $ 20T. Whether Trump will manage to keep it below $28T by 2021 is questionable. What is more certain is that by 2025, whoever is president, … Continue reading
Posted on January 19, 2018 by Egon von Greyerz The world is now between Scylla and Charybdis or between two evils. Thus, there is no solution or positive outcome of the present state of the world economy. Scylla is the rock or the six headed monster whilst Charybdis is a whirlpool or a black hole (a hard place). BETWEEN SCYLLA (A ROCK) AND CHARYBDIS (A HARD PLACE) Since 2006-9, governments and central banks believe that they have got through the strait of Messina passing through Scylla and Charybdis but sadly they are mistaken. The world is still desperately trying to get through the inescapable passage that would lead to safety. By printing unlimited amounts of money and thus doubling global debt, there is a general belief that the world has passed the dangers. But sadly that is not the case. We are still in very dangerous waters. Will the world … Continue reading
Bob Moriarty December 4, 2017 Silver and gold have hit a new low for the year during December in each of the last five years. They are on track for repeating their journey this year if we are to believe sentiment matters. And I do. Two measures allow us to gauge sentiment. My favorite is the DSI or Daily Sentiment Index put out by Jake Bernstein. It’s more valuable than cheap. One good trade would more than pay for six month’s service. If you want to see how accurate is it, on December 17th of 2015, the day of the low in gold, it was 8, the low for the year. On December 15th of 2016, the day of the low in gold, it showed a value of 4, also a low for the year. For silver in December of 2015 the DSI indicated a value of 8 also on the 17th of the … Continue reading
By Anna Hirtenstein November 30, 2017, 11:00 PM CST Recycling techniques can draw metal from lithium-ion batteries New source could meet 10% of car industry’s metal needs Why Electric Cars Aren’t Taking Over Yet Almost 9,000 miles from the dusty Congo savanna, miners have hit on an entirely new source of cobalt — the rare mineral at the heart of the electric-car boom. And not only can they take coffee breaks, when they take a break, they can grab a donut at Tim Hortons.Scientists working for American Manganese Inc., located in the suburbs of Vancouver, have developed a way to produce enough of the bluish-gray metal to power all the electric cars on the road today without drilling into the ground: by recycling faulty batteries. It’s one of many technologies that entrepreneurs are patenting to prepare for a time when electric cars outnumber polluting petrol engines, turning the entire automotive … Continue reading