Go Away In May? Not If You Own This NASDAQ 100 Stock

Tom Bowley | April 21, 2018 at 11:43 AM   One of the most over used cliches in the stock market, in my opinion, is “go away in May”.  First of all, it’s simply bad investment advice.  Since 1950 on the S&P 500, the May 1st to July 17th period has produced annualized returns of 6.00%.  So if you decide to “go away in May”, where will you park your long-term money in today’s environment and beat 6%?  Granted, that 6% return is not guaranteed, but it is the historical return for the period listed above and it’s not bad considering that a 10 year treasury note yields 2.95%. A better piece of investment advice, based on history and my opinion, is to go away on July 17th.  One other important fact that the “go away in May” folks overlook is that strategy would completely fail to participate in the Russell 2000’s … Continue reading

Bloomberg Commodity Index Is Near An Upside Breakout

John Murphy | April 21, 2018 at 05:20 PM Editor’s Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy’s Market Message on Thursday, April 19th at 12:11pm ET BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS NEAR AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT… This week’s surge in commodity prices is starting to attract a lot of attention. That’s because rising commodity prices are a leading indicator of inflation. Rising commodity prices have a lot of intermarket implications. For one thing, rising commodity prices usually cause Treasury bond prices to fall and yields to rise (as they’re doing today). That usually helps stocks tied to commodities and those that benefit from rising rates (like banks and financials). But it would hurt rate-sensitive bond proxies like staples, utilities, and REITS. Rising bond yields could, however, cause the yield curve to steepen and relieve recent concerns about it falling to the lowest level in a decade. Let’s look at some … Continue reading

Gold Should Be at $16,450 & Silver $761


April 19, 2018

The super powers in the West are doing what they can to provoke Russia and indirectly China and Iran into a world war. Most people alive today were not adults when WWII started and therefore did not follow the lead up to the war. But today the whole world can watch how the West has chosen to attack a country which has no major significance geopolitically and does not threaten any other country. Still the West clearly knows that bombing of Syria can start a global conflict with potentially horrendous consequences.

There is no intelligent reporting of these events in the Western media. Whatever propaganda the media is fed, they just publish it without any analysis or investigation. And the US with its allies do not wait for any independent verification of alleged use of chemical weapons. That a world war could start on such fickle reasoning is absolutely frightening.

UK & US STARTS A WAR TO DIVERT ATTENTION FROM DOMESTIC WOES

Syria is of course only an excuse. As a country it would be of no consequence for the safety of the rest of the world if it was left alone. Most wars are started by nations which are under economic pressure domestically. The US and UK fit that picture perfectly.

With debts growing exponentially and massive budget and trade deficits, both these countries are on the way to bankruptcy. Added to that, their leaders are under major pressure at home. Trump has “Deep State” and impeachment pressures and Theresa May suffers from weak leadership in a minority government with an unresolved Brexit. This is the perfect background for pretending that there is a major global conflict and diverting the attention to the international scene.

It is only Russia’s restraint which has so far stopped this conflict from turning into something very serious for the world. We must remember that Russia only has two military bases outside of their country whilst the US has around 1,000. Also, according to independent experts, Russia’s military might is far superior to that of the US. But in the case of a nuclear war, both countries have more than enough power to destroy the world. So we must hope and pray that it won’t come to that.

PROTECT AGAINST FINANCIAL RISKS

Virtually nobody can protect against a global nuclear conflict. But we can protect against local conflicts and we can protect against a financial crisis. In 2001 we decided as a company that protection against a potential financial crisis was an absolute necessity. Thus we took the decision to invest in physical gold for our clients and ourselves. At the time, I regarded the continuous deficit spending, credit growth and the derivative time bomb as major risks.

The best time to make a strategic and long-term investment decision is when the asset you intend to buy is unloved and undervalued. That was certainly the case with gold at the time. Gold had been going down for 19 years from $850 in 1980 to a low of $250 in 1999. Central banks around the world had been selling a major part of their gold. The UK and Switzerland comes to mind as two countries selling the majority of their gold around the lows – a very good buying signal.

As we were forecasting a potential financial crisis at some point in the future, we recommended, in early 2002 to our investors to buy gold for up to 50% of their financial assets. Gold was then $300. At the time this was quite a radical proposition, especially since gold was then a barbarous relic that was totally out of fashion. The advantage with buying an undervalued asset that is not on the front pages, is that the risk is so much smaller than when the trade becomes crowded.

GOLD READY FOR THE NEXT STRONG MOVE UP

The timing was quite fortunate. As the chart below shows, gold rose every year from $300 in 2002 to $1,920 in 2011. In 2013 a bigger correction started which ended in 2015. Since then gold has only moved up slowly just like it did in 1999-2001.

In my opinion, gold is now in the process of breaking out from the 5 year consolidation. We need to get proper confirmation with a move to $1,400 but the position of the quarterly chart confirmed by the rising MACD indicator is a strong sign that the next move in gold to new highs is imminent.

The chart below also shows that gold is in a strong uptrend and that the correction in the last 5 years is minor and finishing.

PHYSICAL GOLD IS HELD FOR WEALTH PRESERVATION NOT FOR SPECULATION

We must remember that gold is not bought or held as a conventional investment for capital appreciation purposes. No, gold has a much more important function than that. Our company invested in gold in 2002 because we identified the risks in the financial system as very high. But today the risks are substantially higher and the reason for buying physical gold even more compelling.

WE BUY PHYSICAL GOLD BECAUSE:

  • It has been money for 5,000 years
  • It is the only money which has survived throughout history.
  • It guarantees stable purchasing power over time.
  • It is scarce – It cannot be printed. (Unlimited paper gold creation will soon collapse.)
  • It is durable – All the gold ever produced still exists.
  • It is nobody else’s liability – Thus no counterparty risk.
  • It is held and traded outside a fragile financial system – Thus gives independence.
  • It is the ultimate wealth preservation asset and insurance against a rotten world economy.

GOLD BUG?

It might appear that I am a gold bug but that is far from the case. We bought gold in 2002 to protect against the colossal risks we saw in the world economy and financial system. We are not in love with gold but believe that it is the best protection you can buy and own today. At some point gold will be overloved and overvalued. Then we will recommend to our investors to sell some of their gold or swap it against other assets which are unloved and undervalued. But I expect that time to be quite a few years away.

INFLATION ADJUSTED GOLD SHOULD BE $16,450 AND SILVER $761

Today at $1,350, gold is as unloved and undervalued as it was when we bought in 2002 at $300. On an real inflation adjusted basis gold at $1,350 today is at the same level as in 2002. (see chart below) and also at a 300 year low. The 1980 gold peak at $850, adjusted for inflation, would be $16,450 in today’s money – 12x higher than currently. That price is more in line with our own targets.

Silver is even more undervalued. On the same inflation adjusted basis, silver is also at a 300 year low. At $17.20 today, inflation adjusted silver is the same as in 2000 at around $4. And the 1980 silver high of $50 would today be $761 – a 44x increase from here.

Gold at $16,450 and silver at $761, makes the gold-silver ratio 22, which is in line with historical levels. But since the ratio is just below 79 today, it means that silver will move almost 4x as fast as gold.

GOLD AND SILVER ARE AT HISTORICAL LOWS – INFLATION ADJUSTED

Bearing in mind that credit creation has been exponential in this century with global debt having doubled to $250 trillion since 2006, gold has in no way reflected this money printing and total destruction of paper money. So this is still to come. Once the intervention in the paper market fails, which could happen at any time, the moves in gold and silver will be explosive.

The time to own physical gold and silver is today and not when they move to new highs. Both metals are at inflation adjusted historical lows and the downside risk is minimal. Also, they probably are the most undervalued of all assets currently.

With geopolitical, economic and financial risks at an extreme high, please don’t ignore these risks and don’t ignore history. And with the precious metals at extreme lows, it would be very unwise not to own substantial protection in the form of physical gold and silver.

Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management AG

Silver on the verge of a break out

Silver on the verge of a break out Stefan Wieler April 18, 2018 Silver prices are trading almost 25% below the values predicted by our price model. This is the largest downside deviation we have seen in over 25 years. We believe this is the result of massive short selling in the futures market. In order to maintain this downward pressure on silver, speculators would have to continue to sell over 500 million ounces of paper silver per year. A reversal of this positioning could lead a >30% rally in silver prices in our view. View the Entire Research Piece as a PDF here. About a year ago we introduced our Silver Price Framework (see Silver price framework: Both money and a commodity, March 9, 2017). In that report, we highlighted that silver prices are driven by monetary demand as well as supply and demand for industrial purposes, the latter of which … Continue reading

I Don’t Own Any Shares Selling Over 50 Cents

April 17, 2018 IT’S TRUE Dudley Pierce Baker, here, founder and editor of Junior Mining News and Common Stock Warrants for well over 10 years. I just reviewed my portfolio and I currently do not hold any positions, be they, shares or stock warrants, which are selling for over 50 cents. And since most of my positions are in Canadian shares and Canadian dollars, that is only about 40 cents in U.S. dollars. You can call me crazy but, crazy like a fox, as I am out to hit many home runs in the resource sector as gold and silver breakout, which is coming soon. My portfolio has a balance of oil and gas shares, gold and silver companies, several of which are small producers. I also own several of the uranium companies. While I may be known to investors as ‘the warrant guy’, only 25% of my portfolio is … Continue reading

Silver Trails Gold by the Biggest Margin in 25 Years

Silver Trails Gold by the Biggest Margin in 25 Years
PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Silver didn’t get the push it needed to outpace the rise in gold last year, as some analysts had expected, but good things come to those who wait.

“Many of silver’s key drivers that painted a bullish picture last year are still in play for 2018, particularly rising inflationary pressures and a weaker U.S. dollar,” says Maxwell Gold, director of investment strategy at ETF Securities.

Even so, silver futures have lost roughly 5% so far this year as of Friday, trailing gold’s 0.3% decline. In 2017, gold gained nearly 14%—roughly double the rise for silver. Silver closed on Friday at $16.54 an ounce.

Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, says he expected silver to top gold last year and this year, but that hasn’t happened because the rally in gold hasn’t had “the kind of consistency…necessary to lead investors to look to silver for additional leverage.”

Silver Trails Gold by the Biggest Margin in 25 Years

That will come, he says, given his expectation for further declines in the U.S. dollar on the back of “recent signs of rising inflation and the fact that we’re in the back half of the [Federal Reserve’s] tightening cycle.” Other central banks look poised to begin tightening monetary policy, he says. A weaker dollar will translate into “upward pressure on gold and, eventually, as this trend becomes apparent, greater gains for silver,” says Lundin.

Demand will also play a big part in silver’s climb.

“Silver demand from industrial applications is expected to grow mainly from [electric vehicle] and photovoltaic applications, as silver has excellent electrical conductivity properties,” says Will Rhind, chief executive officer of exchange-traded fund company GraniteShares. Photovoltaic panels collect solar energy. “With continued global economic growth, continued EV demand and a weakening dollar, silver has the potential to perform well in 2018 and potentially outperform gold,” he says.

A report from the Silver Institute released in January shows that demand for the white metal from industrial applications is the largest component for silver offtake, representing 60% last year, and it’s expected to continue to grow this year. Worldwide silver demand for photovoltaic applications, particularly in solar panels, reached an estimated 92 million ounces in 2017.

“We expect the growth to continue this year and set another record for silver demand, driven by large-scale solar capacity additions and continued strong demand uptake from individual households, particularly in China,” the report says.

Analysts also point out that the gold-to-silver price ratio, which measures the amount of silver ounces that can be exchanged for one ounce of gold, is historically high, suggesting a bargain in silver.

SILVER “REMAINS RELATIVELY CHEAP compared with gold,” with the gold-to-silver ratio at about 80, versus a historical average of 60, says ETF Securities’ Gold. “Silver may play catch-up, spurred by bargain buying among retail and ETF investors.” The silver bullion-backed iShares Silver Trust ETF (ticker: SLV) has lost nearly 3% year to date.

Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, says that silver’s “failure to rise with gold so far in 2018 means that silver is touching extreme levels, in terms of the yellow precious metal.” The gold-to-silver ratio makes “gold very nearly as expensive as it has been any time in the past 25 years,” he says.

He also points out that over the past 50 years, silver and gold prices have gone in the same direction on 71% of all trading days and the two metals have moved in the same direction in 74% of the months since 1968. Given that, “if you’re bullish on gold, history says you should expect silver to rise, too,” says Ash.

And even after last year’s disappointing performance for silver, Lundin believes that prices will climb above $18 an ounce this year and “perhaps significantly higher.”

That said, he also warns of a possible dip to the mid-$15 range, particularly if the 10-year Treasury yield hits 3%. “Breaking that benchmark would likely lead to short-term havoc in risk assets, leading investors to sell the metals to meet margin calls,” Lundin says.

MYRA P. SAEFONG covers commodities for MarketWatch.

Email: editors@barrons.com

PDAC – Investors Cautionary Warning


March 3, 2018
By Dudley Pierce Baker
Founder – Editor
http://JuniorMiningNews.com
http://CommonStockWarrants.com

Let the games begin and the b.s. fly….

In past years I have heard Rick Rule several times cautioning investors at resource conferences to stay away from most of those companies attending and presenting. Most of the companies will never produce anything and will only sell shares, rollback, sell more shares, rollback, etc., while of course management will continue to draw salaries and investors suffer the pain of a lousy ‘investment’. There is a lot of s… out there.

Of course, I am referring to the smaller players/exploration companies not to the big boys, i.e., Goldcorp, Kinross, Agnico Eagle, etc.

There is an incredible line up of around 500 companies attending/presenting at PDAC this year which starts on Sunday, March 4 and runs through Wednesday to 12:00 on March 7.

Many of these companies, in my opinion, are there out of pure desperation, yes desperation. They are all in competition to get your investment dollars.

Truth is that it costs each company attending a minimum of $10,000 to $15,000 and some of them probably don’t even have that much cash in the bank. But they believe (out of desperation) that they need to be at PDAC to try and get your attention as to their individual story. Most of the companies management are nice guys/gals that you might like to have a drink with, but do they really know the details or even believe in the story themselves?

So, just be aware of what you as an investor are up against and ask the right questions of management of those companies which you ‘think’ you might be interested.

Perhaps the single most important question for the CEO or other officers of those companies is simple:

How many shares do you own?

You want to know if management has skin in the game. I have been lied to before by management but thankfully have a subscription to INKResearch.com where I can verify in a few seconds the insider holdings of all companies. In my services I provide a link to recent insider activity on all shares which I personally own and also on all of the companies with stock warrants trading in the United States and Canada, all of which are in our databases.

Click on this link to take you to the list of companies presenting this week at PDAC.

Here are some of the companies at PDAC which I follow or own, some of which have stock warrants trading. If you visit them, tell them Dudley said hello.

Alamos Gold                                                    Northern Dynasty Minerals (warrants)
Atlantic Gold (warrants)                                  Osisko Gold Royalties (warrants)
Avino Silver (warrants)                                    Palamina Corporation
Eagle Plains Resources                                    Quaterra Resources
Energy Fuels (uranium)                                    Riverside Resources
Fancamp Exploration                                        Sandstorm Gold (warrants)
First Mining Gold (Finance)                             UEX Corporation (uranium)
Gossan Resources
Marlin Gold
Minaurun Gold
Montero Mining Exploration

Enjoy your time at the conference and visit as many companies as possible, but remember what I said above.

If you would like to know more about stock warrants, get my Free book by clicking on the link below:

 

 

 

Are These Gold Bankers Better Than Wall St?

POSTED ON FEBRUARY 26, 2018 BY PAUL   There are a group of bankers based in three cities, not Wall St., but Toronto, Vancouver, and Denver that you probably never heard of. Surprisingly, they are gold stocks. They are royalty & streaming companies, otherwise known as the Three Kings (Franco-Nevada, Royal Gold, and Wheaton Precious Metals) are the non-media grabbing bankers in the mining sector. They collect their revenue from some of the biggest mining companies in the world: Glencore, Vale, Teck Resources, Barrick Gold, Newmont Mining, AngloGold Ashanti Limited. Yet, if you add up the staff of these 3 companies, it would be less than 100 people. At the same time, their combined revenue of almost $2 billion in 2016.  You could call them the bankers of mining. Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold were both founded in the 1980’s. Wheaton Precious Metals (previously named Silver Wheaton) is the new entrant over the past ten years to … Continue reading

The 2007-9 Crisis Will Return in 2018 – With A Vengeance

Posted on February 16, 2018 by Egon von Greyerz US economics is extremely predictable. It doesn’t matter who is President and what party he comes from. Because every president will spend more money than the US can afford. On average, US Federal debt has doubled every 8 years since Reagan came to power in 1981. And Trump has just fulfilled the prediction. The budget deal that has been agreed is guaranteed to produce substantial deficits in coming years. The current year’s deficit might be just under $1 trillion but thereafter it is virtually guaranteed that the US will not have a budget deficit under $1 trillion for many, many years. US FEDERAL DEBT $40 TRILLION BY 2025 During Bush Jr, debt went form $10T to $ 20T. Whether Trump will manage to keep it below $28T by 2021 is questionable. What is more certain is that by 2025, whoever is president, … Continue reading