Global Tensions Dangerously Increasing

Shayrat Air base

By Kevin Massengill

This post Global Tensions Dangerously Increasing appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Even as President Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in Florida this week, the U.S. launched over 50 U.S. cruise missiles against the Syrian Shayrat air base. It is the same air base suspected of being the launch site of a chemical attack at Khan Shaykhun.

Graphic by NightWatch, April 6, 2017

While this will not end the Syrian civil war, there will be myriad ramifications beyond the usual U.S. political finger-pointing. We should expect retaliation by Syrian President Assad. He could fire air defense missiles, launch an attack on U.S. personnel at Tabqa or other northern Syrian air bases or instigate an incident against the Israeli Golan Heights.

Another factor is the embarrassment of the Russian president. The U.S. attack demonstrates the limits of Russian power in Syria against a genuine great power. The Russians could not prevent the U.S. attack and could not protect Syria from it had they tried.

Iran also will be embarrassed by the attack, because it also could not defend its surrogate. It shows the Syrian armed forces could easily be destroyed if Western leaders so decide, regardless of Iranian goals.

Another reaction to consider will be China’s. By launching the attack during the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping, the U.S. gives the impression that President Xi was informed and either posed no objection or was treated disrespectfully.

Whether he was informed or not, China will be concerned about the impact 50 cruise missiles could have on their South China Sea sandbar bases and on what the Trump administration just signaled to North Korea.

There is a long-standing connection between North Korea and Syria. North Koreans built the first Syrian Scud missile installations as well as the nuclear reactor in eastern Syria that the Israelis destroyed in 2007.

Chinese and North Korean leaders will understand that a U.S. attack on Syria sends a warning message to North Korea. North Korea will feel the need to display solidarity with the Syrian government, and the Chinese will be weighing their options.

Even as the missiles landed on Syria, we know the two presidents were discussing North Korea and trade because of the North Korean missile tests and tensions in the South China Sea.

But as these major headlines break, it is important to remember that countries are often less stable and powerful than they appear.

China is no exception. And China deserves some extra attention today.

The Chinese leadership is faced with the tectonic pressures of a potential financial collapse, an uneasy population and growing regional and international reaction to their military expansion into the South China Sea.

It is a mistake to refer to nations as unitary actors. It’s easy to think of China, for example, as a unitary actor and large external actor because it’s so big and very powerful. It terrifies its neighbors. It intimidates even its friends and allies.

But international crises are often the result of domestic actors who may view external conflict for their …read more

Source:: Daily Reckoning feed

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