Cory’s Insights – Tue 28 Feb, 2017

By Cory

Some interesting market and economic facts

I wanted to update something I said on the market wrap becasue the number has significantly changed. It’s scary that Fed Heads can still move markets and data by just a couple comments but it is the world we live in. What I am referring to is the updated rate hike odds for March… I stated in the market wrap that these odds stood at 54%. Well that has changed quite significantly.

After headlines stated “FED’S DUDLEY: CASE FOR RATE RISE MORE COMPELLING, CNN REPORTS” and “DUDLEY SAYS FAIRLY SOON MEANS RELATIVELY NEAR FUTURE” we now stand at 70%! In all fairness Dudley is a known dove but this is a major move from around 50% at the market open to now around 70%. Just wanted to update everyone on these numbers.

Now for some other data I find interesting…

India – After all the worries out of India after Modi banned 85% of India’s cash we are seeing how the economy is doing… It turns out quite well. Q4 GDP was up 7% and Consumer Spending also up 10%! (See the full table below.)

I have to say I am surprised and more than a little impressed.

US Stock Markets – I think we all can agree that the US markets have ben very boring as of late. Just how boring?

This from Ryan Detrick who I follow on Twitter. “Today was the 50th consecutive day the S&P 500 didn’t trade in a daily range of greater than 1%. The previous record was 34 days from 1995.”

This is more an interesting stat than anything to trade on.

US Economy – Recent data on US trade. In short the deficit got worse.

I will leave you with this chart below. It outlines perfectly the discrepancy we are seeing between optimism and what the economy is actually doing. They use the terms soft data and hard data…

I hope everyone has a great evening. If you are watching the Trump speech have fun!

…read more

Source:: The Korelin Economics Report

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