French researchers unearth largest stash of Medieval silver coins ever found

By analyst

By Valentina Ruiz Leotaud

Archaeologists with the National Center for Scientific Research and other institutions in France revealed today that they have unearthed 2,200 silver deniers and oboles, 21 Islamic gold dinars, a very expensive gold signet ring and other objects made of gold from the Abbey of Cluny, located in the department of Saône-et-Loire.

According to Anne Baud and Anne Flammin, the researchers who led the dig, never before has such a large cache of silver deniers been discovered. They also said that finding such a large amount of silver pieces together with Arab gold coins and a signet ring was a very rare occurrence.

“This is an exceptional find for a monastic setting and especially that of Cluny, which was one of the largest abbeys of Western Europe during the Middle Ages. The treasure was buried in fill where it seems to have stayed for 850 years,” the scientists said in a press release issued by the institute.

To better understand the meaning of the finding, the experts explained that in the Middle Ages only few people could own signet rings and gold dinars, as Western currency was mostly dominated by the silver deniers. Gold coins were reserved for special transactions.

Photo by Alexis Grattier— Université Lumière Lyon 2.

These particular gold dinars were very unusual, as they were struck between 1121 and 1131 under the reign of Ali ibn Yusuf (1106–1143), who belonged to the Berber Almoravid dynasty. Similarly, the gold ring is a unique jewel, as it has a red intaglio depicting the bust of a god and an inscription possibly dating the ring back to the first half of the 12th century.

The archaeologists said that having found these assets at an abbey opened a Pandora box of questions such as if the owner was a monk, a church dignitary or a rich layman, or how come Islamic dinars minted in Spain and Morocco ended up in eastern France.

They hope that the discovery breathes new life into research delving into the past of the Cluny, which is a historic site open to the public.

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…read more

Source:: Infomine

The post French researchers unearth largest stash of Medieval silver coins ever found appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.

The Morgan Report’s Weekly Perspective with David Morgan

By David Morgan

The Morgan Report’s Weekly Perspective | http://www.themorganreport.com

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The Morgan Report is all about YOU and how you can build and preserve Wealth for generations to come. We know it can sometimes seem a daunting task to protect your assets and preserve or grow your wealth. Over 15 years ago, a small group of us started The Morgan Report and formed an exclusive membership organization to promote personal freedom, an honest money system, free market wealth accumulation and asset protection.

Thus was born The Morgan Report – since then we’ve helped 11,000-plus members scattered over the globe in every continent and over 100,000+ e-newsletter subscribers have read our weekly e-newsletter — This Week’s View from The Morgan Report.

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Source:: david morgan

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Business Cycles and Inflation, Part II

By Pater Tenebrarum

Early Warning Signals in a Fragile System

[ed note: here is Part 1; if you have missed it, best go there and start reading from the beginning]

We recently received the following charts via email with a query whether they should worry stock market investors. They show two short term interest rates, namely the 2-year t-note yield and 3 month t-bill discount rate. Evidently the moves in short term rates over the past ~18 – 24 months were quite large, even if their absolute levels remain historically low.

Sizable moves higher in short term interest rates were recorded over the past two years. 2 year note yields only started moving up in mid 2016, but the surge in t-bill discount rates has been in train since late 2015 already. The moves in short term rates come from extremely low levels, but they are nevertheless quite noteworthy – click to enlarge.

The first thing that comes to mind in connection with asset prices is that the cost of carry for leveraged positions is rising. Eventually this will have an effect on such positions, particularly in fixed-income instruments, which inter alia include structured products such as CLOs (collateralized loan obligations). Some market participants reportedly employ leverage of up to 1:10 in these in order to boost returns, which the banks are apparently happy to provide, as the risk is deemed to be low.

As we have discussed previously, CLOs are conceptually not different from the CMOs that created such heavy conniptions in 2007-2009, but CLOs ultimately turned out to be quite resilient at the time. The problem is of course that it is definitely not a given that they will be similarly resilient in the next crisis. Banks no longer have large proprietary books of corporate bonds, but by providing margin loans to investors who buy them on leverage, they remain exposed – and the degree of leverage is reminiscent of the margin requirements of Wall Street bucket-shops in the 1920s.

Obviously these enhanced returns are highly dependent on borrowing costs, so rising short term rates are bound to become a problem at some point. As a more general remark: the central bank policy of suppressing rates to zero or close to zero provided the incentive for investors to take up enormous leverage, which is seen as the only way of obtaining half-way decent yields. In other words, central bank manipulation of interest rates has definitely made the financial system a lot more fragile.

There is a feedback loop between the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and market rates, but market expectations are historically the main driver; it usually appears as though the Fed is simply following the lead of market rates. It should also be noted that market-based inflation expectations so far remain quite subdued. 5-year TIPS yields have oscillated between -10 to +30 basis points this year, after trading as high as 52 basis points in December 2015.

5 year TIPS yields are a good proxy for medium term …read more

Source:: Acting Man

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Investor Insight: Take-Two Interactive Software Stock

Take-Two Interactive Software Stock Annual Revenue

By Rob Otman

Take-Two Interactive Software stock had a rough day in the market on Friday November 17…

Shares dropped -0.91% and closed the day at $117.82. They’re now trading 2.32% below their 52-week high of $120.62.

With today’s drop, Take-Two Interactive Software now has a market cap of $14 billion. That makes it a large cap company.

The business operates in the entertainment software industry and employs 3,707 people. Its shares trade primarily on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

Take-Two Interactive Software has 114.05 million shares outstanding and 3.14 million traded hands for the day. That’s above the average 30-day volume of 1.91 million shares.

Over the last five years, Take-Two Interactive Software’s revenue is up by 24.35%.

You can see this growth in annual revenue chart below…

In the last year alone, Take-Two Interactive Software’s revenue has grown by 30.54%. That’s a solid sign for Take-Two Interactive Software stock owners.

We like to invest in companies that grow their sales. A growing top line is a sign of a healthy business.

For now, Take-Two Interactive Software will continue to pull in revenue. So let’s take a closer look at the company’s total financial health.

One of the best way to do that is by looking at its balance sheet… Take-Two Interactive Software’s cash comes in at over $1 billion and the company’s debt is only $252 million…

Take-Two Interactive Software’s cash pile is larger than its total debt. The company is financially sound for now and can take on new projects.
What is Take-Two Interactive Software Stock Worth?
Let’s look at a few key ratios to determine the value of Take-Two Interactive Software stock…

Price-to-Earnings (P/E): This ratio comes in at 100.92 for Take-Two Interactive Software. That’s high. A high P/E ratio shows that investors are already expecting high earnings growth.

Price-to-Book (P/B): This ratio is a cornerstone for value investors. A lower number here indicates a better value play. And at 9.08, Take-Two Interactive Software looks reasonable… but P/B varies greatly based on the industry.

These are two great metrics to start with when valuing a company. But company analysis should go much further.

Keep an eye out for more of my analysis.

Rob Otman

P.S. If you’re interested in finding Strong Buy stocks yourself, check out 3 Powerful Technical Indicators for Smarter Investing. We’ll show you how to eliminate emotional bias from your trading process with three powerful technical tools you can start using to boost your trading profits immediately. Click here to learn more. …read more

Source:: Investment You

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The Biggest Irrational Fears for Investors

By Alexander Green The week before Halloween, my colleague Rachel Gearhart asked a group of Oxford Club investment analysts to write a few words about our most irrational fear and how we overcame it.

It’s a good question and – while I’ll get to my answer in a moment – it deserves a clarifying comment.

Many investment fears are entirely rational. After all, the capital you put at risk in the financial markets is real money. Money that you earned, paid taxes on and saved rather than spent.

The knowledge that it could suddenly become a substantially smaller sum or – in a worst-case scenario – vanish entirely is not an idle consideration.

Yet, as experienced equity investors know, volatility is simply the price of admission.

(Although it has been so rare in recent months that I wonder whether the next “refresher” won’t come as a jolt to many.)

The reason Treasury bills and certificates of deposit offer virtually no risk of loss is because your return will be minimal and – after inflation – close to zero.

This is not satisfactory for people looking to build wealth or reach financial independence. And so we migrate to the stock market for higher returns – and the inevitable fluctuations that come with them.

How you respond to those fluctuations is important.

As I told Rachel, when I first entered the money management business 32 years ago, I was often afraid my winning stocks would suddenly turn into losers. That irrational fear led me to sell too soon.

[iu-adbox]

“After all,” I told my young self at the time, “you never get hurt taking a profit.”

This is true only if you have the fortitude to never look at the stocks you sold again. Because a stock you’ve cashed in that goes up and up and up is a painful sight.

If you sell too late, you can lose 100% of your investment. But if you sell too soon, you can lose many hundreds of percentage points – indeed thousands of percentage points – of upside.

Readers who owned Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) or Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) a decade ago know exactly what I mean.

It’s bad enough that many investors don’t remain calm in a down market. But others can’t remain calm in an up market either. They get so excited about their gains that they feel compelled to lock them in straight away.

Then they regret it. If this has happened to you, you’re in good company.

Legendary fund manager Peter Lynch said in a recent Forbes article, “My biggest mistake was that I always sold stocks way too early… I was dumb. With great companies the passage of time is a major positive.”

And in his investment classic One Up On Wall Street he wrote, “Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.”

Of course, not all great companies remain great.

There was a time when Montgomery Ward, Circuit City, RadioShack, WorldCom, Blockbuster, Lehman Brothers, Enron, Borders and Bear Stearns were all up-and-coming growth stocks.

How do you hang on to the winners …read more

Source:: Investment You

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Bulls TRAMPLED In Stock Market Stampede

chart: What happens when everyone exits at once

By Zach Scheidt

This post Bulls TRAMPLED In Stock Market Stampede appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

When the market started moving lower, investors did the smart thing… They started unloading their risky positions.

The only problem was, everyone was trying to sell at once!

As panic set in, buyers stepped back. There was no sense in owning shares if prices were dropping quickly. Why not wait for a more stable environment?

But of course, with no buyers, a herd of investors trying to exit the market had nowhere to go!

It wasn’t until after weeks of panic, volatility, and gut-wrenching losses that the market finally started to act normal again.

That’s a quick synopsis of what happened during the financial crisis of 2008. Yes, there were problems with many of the companies whose shares traded sharply lower. But the biggest issue causing markets to drop suddenly was a total reversal of investor perspective.

In other words, just about everyone turned from bullish on financial stocks — to bearish on financial stocks — in a very short period of time.

And the fallout was devastating.

Unfortunately, today we have a similar situation setting up for some of the most loved (and risky) stocks in the market…

A Disturbing Level of Risk

This week, I came across a chart that scared the living daylights out of me. Take a look and tell me what you think. (Send your emails to EdgeFeedback@AgoraFinancial.com — or better yet, comment on my twitter post here.)

The chart shows that institutional investors have loaded up on risky investments and are holding more leverage (often borrowing extra capital to invest) than at any other time this century.

That makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside…

This chart is even more disturbing than the lopsided sentiment chart that we looked at last month. Because here, instead of polling individual investors, the risky culprits are the big elephants in the room.

These guys aren’t just making risky bets with a retirement account worth a few hundred thousand — or even a few million. No, these guys are wielding billion dollar positions that are now parked in some of the riskiest opportunities the market has to offer.

Picture a herd of elephants camped out at a watering hole surrounded on three sides by cliffs. There’s only one way for this herd to exit.

Now, imagine what happens when a lightning strike, a predator, or even just an unusual scent spooks this herd.

Each of these 6-ton beasts will head for the exit. All pushing and jockeying for position to get out of danger as quickly as possible. If you’re competing for a spot in the exit path, good luck!

That’s exactly what I’m worried about in the markets right now. With so many 6-ton investors all camped out in the same risky spot, the scene could get ugly very quickly if you’re a small investor in the same risky position.

How to Avoid The Stampede

As an individual investor, it’s of paramount importance that you protect your own capital.

It’s not fair, but if these managers lose a …read more

Source:: Daily Reckoning feed

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Exclusive KE Report Commentary – Fri 17 Nov, 2017

By Cory Trader Vic – What The Market End Looks Like

This interview with Trader Vic was recorded later in the day yesterday. Last time I chatted with Trader Vic he made the comment that “the market is going to end”. I received a couple comments asking him to detail more what that looks like. We also comment on the potential of tax reform and our doubts about how much the overall economy will benefit.

Download audio file (2017_11_16-Trader-Vic.mp3)

…read more

Source:: The Korelin Economics Report

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Business Cycles and Inflation – Part I

By Pater Tenebrarum

Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting Q4 2017 – Special Guest Ben Hunt, Author and Editor of Epsilon Theory

The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s Advisory Board took place on October 10 and we had the great pleasure to be joined by special guest Ben Hunt this time, who is probably known to many of our readers as the main author and editor of Epsilon Theory. He is also chief risk officer at investment management firm Salient Partners. As always, a transcript of the discussion is available for download below.

Ben Hunt, author of Epsilon Theory and chief risk officer of Salient Partners

As usual, we will add a few words here to expand a little on the discussion. A wide range of issues relevant to the markets was debated at the conference call, but we want to focus on just one particular point here that we only briefly mentioned in the discussion. In fact, as you will see we are about to go off on quite a tangent (note: Part II will be posted shortly as well).

Among the things Ben Hunt specializes in are the narratives accompanying economic and financial trends, and not to forget, economic and monetary policy, which inform the “Common Knowledge Game” (in his introductory remarks, Ronald Stoeferle provides this brief definition: “It’s not what the crowd believes that’s important; it’s what the crowd believes that the crowd believes”). This reminded us of something George Soros first mentioned in a speech he delivered in the early 1990s:

Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited.

This is undoubtedly a great insight and great advice for traders and investors. Long-time readers may recall that we have occasionally mentioned in these pages that Ludwig von Mises described successful speculators as akin to “historians of the future”. Soros appears to have a very similar view of speculators.*

We believe that being au fait with sound economic theory to some extent can be helpful for people investing in financial markets, but a good grasp of economic history seems even more important. The process speculators employ to arrive at their decisions has certainly more in common with what Mises called the understanding of the historian than with economic theorizing. Knowledge of theory can improve and refine said understanding though, and help constrain forecasts.

Soros coined the term “reflexivity”, which describes something very similar – as he put it, it sets up a feedback loop between market valuations and the fundamentals that are being valued. This is something we can nowadays e.g. observe among junk bond buyers and their odd beliefs about future default rates.

The reflexivity consists of the fact that these default rates depend to a substantial extent on their own willingness to refinance junk-rated companies, many of which would perish if they stopped …read more

Source:: Acting Man

The post Business Cycles and Inflation – Part I appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.

Investor Insight: Red Hat Stock Analysis

Red Hat Annual Revenue

By Rob Otman

Red Hat stock had a good day in the market on Thursday November 16. Shares climbed 2.27% and closed the day at $126.63. They’re now trading 0.03% below their 52-week high of $126.67.

With today’s good gain, Red Hat now has a market cap of $23 billion. That makes it a large cap company.

The business operates in the applications software industry and employs 10,500 people. Its shares trade primarily on the New York stock exchange.

Red Hat has 176.95 million shares outstanding and 2.29 million traded hands for the day. That’s above the average 30-day volume of 1.37 million shares.

The amount of Red Hat stock is also dropping as the company buys back its own shares. In the last 12 months, it repurchased $431 million worth.

Over the last five years, Red Hat’s revenue is up by 125.7%. You can see this growth in annual revenue chart below…

In the last year alone, Red Hat’s revenue has grown by 14.68%. That’s a solid sign for Red Hat stock owners.

We like to invest in companies that grow their sales. A growing top line is a sign of a healthy business.

For now, Red Hat will continue to pull in revenue. So let’s take a closer look at the company’s total financial health.

One of the best way to do that is by looking at its balance sheet… Red Hat’s cash comes in at $2 billion and the company’s debt is $746 million…

Red Hat’s cash pile is larger than its total debt. This and a steady cash flow has allowed the company to buy back shares.
What is Red Hat Stock Worth?
Let’s look at a few key ratios to determine the value of Red Hat stock…

Price-to-Earnings (P/E): This ratio comes in at 77.18 for Red Hat. That’s high. A high P/E ratio shows that investors are already expecting high earnings growth.

Price-to-Book (P/B): This ratio is a cornerstone for value investors. A lower number here indicates a better value play. And at 16, Red Hat looks expensive… but P/B varies greatly based on the industry.

These are two great metrics to start with when valuing a company. But company analysis should go much further.

Keep an eye out for more of my analysis.

Rob Otman

P.S. If you’re interested in finding Strong Buy stocks yourself, check out 3 Powerful Technical Indicators for Smarter Investing. We’ll show you how to eliminate emotional bias from your trading process with three powerful technical tools you can start using to boost your trading profits immediately. Click here to learn more. …read more

Source:: Investment You

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